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What will be the primary outcome of the increased Chinese military pressure on Taiwan by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military clashes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Economic sanctions imposed • 25%
Official statements from the involved governments and international news reports
Story
China Increases Military Pressure on Taiwan's Lai with 175 Flights in June, Taiwan Calls for De-escalation
Jul 5, 2024, 03:45 AM
China has increased its military pressure on Taiwan, with 175 military flights crossing the median line in June, the highest in nearly two years. This escalation has raised concerns about the potential for unintentional clashes. Taiwan's Vice President Lai has been a focal point of these pressures. Taiwan has reported more Chinese military activity and has called for de-escalation. Global media narratives are highlighting Chinese acts of aggression, which are impacting U.S. strategy in the Taiwan Strait and stressing geopolitical tensions.
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Increased tensions but no military conflict • 25%
Formal diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Military conflict initiated • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
Increased tensions with Taiwan • 25%
Improved military capabilities • 25%
International diplomatic backlash • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Military conflict initiation • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Exercises conclude peacefully • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Formal diplomatic protests • 25%
Other • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Sanctions by Western countries • 25%
Diplomatic mediation efforts • 25%
No significant response • 25%
De-escalation and cessation of drills • 25%
Continuation with no further escalation • 25%
Increased military presence by China • 25%
Direct military conflict initiated • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military deterrence • 25%
No significant response • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%