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Will there be a significant diplomatic meeting between China and Taiwan to discuss de-escalation by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official government announcements or credible news outlets
Story
China Increases Military Pressure on Taiwan's Lai with 175 Flights in June, Taiwan Calls for De-escalation
Jul 5, 2024, 03:45 AM
China has increased its military pressure on Taiwan, with 175 military flights crossing the median line in June, the highest in nearly two years. This escalation has raised concerns about the potential for unintentional clashes. Taiwan's Vice President Lai has been a focal point of these pressures. Taiwan has reported more Chinese military activity and has called for de-escalation. Global media narratives are highlighting Chinese acts of aggression, which are impacting U.S. strategy in the Taiwan Strait and stressing geopolitical tensions.
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Yes, with significant outcomes • 25%
Yes, but no significant outcomes • 25%
No meeting • 25%
Meeting postponed • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Agreement to de-escalate • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful dialogue initiated • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation to conflict • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
United States • 25%
China • 25%
Taiwan • 25%
None by end of 2024 • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No talks held • 25%
Formal Agreement • 25%
Joint Patrols • 25%
Increased Surveillance • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military presence by China • 25%
Commitment to diplomatic talks • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
