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Outcome of China's military drills around Taiwan by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military tension • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the Chinese or Taiwanese government or credible news sources
Story
China Launches Large-Scale Military Drills Around Taiwan with Record 153 Aircraft
Oct 14, 2024, 05:22 AM
China has launched large-scale military drills around Taiwan, deploying planes and ships to encircle the island. The exercises, which began on October 13, 2024, are intended as a stern warning to what Beijing describes as 'separatist acts' by Taiwan independence forces. Taiwan has condemned the drills as 'irrational and provocative,' and has dispatched its own forces in response. The exercises aim to test the joint operational capabilities of China's theater command forces and include practicing precision strikes and blockading ports. A record 153 Chinese military aircraft were detected during the war games. The Taipei and US governments have both condemned the actions, expressing concern over heightened regional tensions.
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Increased tensions but no military conflict • 25%
Formal diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Military conflict initiated • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Exercises conclude peacefully • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Formal diplomatic protests • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions with Taiwan • 25%
Improved military capabilities • 25%
International diplomatic backlash • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
De-escalation and cessation of drills • 25%
Continuation with no further escalation • 25%
Increased military presence by China • 25%
Direct military conflict initiated • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Other • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
U.S. increases military presence in the region • 25%
EU issues a formal condemnation • 25%
ASEAN countries call for diplomatic talks • 25%
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Condemnation by major powers • 25%
Economic sanctions imposed • 25%
Military alliance support for Taiwan • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Military conflict initiation • 25%