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Market
Outcome of China's military exercises around Taiwan by Apr 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
De-escalation • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Other • 25%
International news agencies and government statements
Story
China Deploys 90 Ships, 100 Aircraft Around Taiwan Amid U.S. Transition
Dec 11, 2024, 01:38 PM
China has initiated what Taiwan officials describe as its largest maritime deployment in recent memory, involving over 90 ships and more than 100 military aircraft in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. This significant military activity has been detected by Taiwan's Defense Ministry, which has labeled it as an attempt to intimidate Taipei and neighboring countries. The deployment comes weeks before the U.S. presidential transition, escalating tensions in the region. Taiwan has demanded that China cease its military activities in nearby waters, describing the actions as provocations and threats to regional security and stability. China, in response, has stated that it is taking 'necessary measures' to defend its sovereignty over Taiwan, although Beijing's military has not officially confirmed the exercises.
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Similar markets
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Exercises conclude peacefully • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Formal diplomatic protests • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
De-escalation and cessation of drills • 25%
Continuation with no further escalation • 25%
Increased military presence by China • 25%
Direct military conflict initiated • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Military conflict initiation • 25%
Increased tensions but no military conflict • 25%
Formal diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Military conflict initiated • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
Increased tensions with Taiwan • 25%
Improved military capabilities • 25%
International diplomatic backlash • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
