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What will be the outcome of the current military tensions between China and Taiwan by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Official statements from the governments of China and Taiwan, and international news agencies
Story
China Deploys 90 Ships in Massive Military Operation Near Taiwan
Dec 13, 2024, 04:28 AM
China has conducted a significant military operation near Taiwan, deploying approximately 90 naval and coast guard vessels, marking one of the largest military maneuvers in recent years. This operation included simulations of attacks on foreign ships and blockades of maritime routes, according to Taiwanese security officials. The Chinese Defense Ministry has not officially confirmed these drills but stated that it is up to China to decide on military exercises based on its needs and the situation. The Taiwanese authorities have noted an increase in Chinese military activity, with 12 Chinese military aircraft and 14 naval vessels detected operating around Taiwan in the past 24 hours. This deployment is seen as a response to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's recent visit to the U.S. territories of Hawaii and Guam, which has heightened tensions between China and Taiwan. Taiwan's defense ministry has initiated war-preparedness drills and is closely monitoring the situation, emphasizing the evolving threat from China since 2022.
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De-escalation and dialogue initiated • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Formal intervention by a third party • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Military conflict initiation • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased tensions • 25%
Decreased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
De-escalation and cessation of drills • 25%
Continuation with no further escalation • 25%
Increased military presence by China • 25%
Direct military conflict initiated • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Agreement to de-escalate • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Successful dialogue initiated • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation to conflict • 25%