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Market
Will the U.S. initiate a new trade dispute with China at the WTO by June 30, 2025?
2
Donald Trump•Robert Lighthizer•Lighthizer•Trump•China•Chinese•Wall Street•Skadden Arps•USMCA•Mexico•Canada
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
World Trade Organization filings or major news outlets
Story
Trump Picks Lighthizer, Known for China Trade War, to Lead U.S. Trade Policy
Nov 8, 2024, 05:11 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has asked Robert Lighthizer, an arch protectionist, to return as U.S. Trade Representative, signaling a potential shift back to aggressive trade policies. Lighthizer, who served from 2017 to 2021 during Trump's previous administration, is known for launching the trade war with China and implementing tariffs on Chinese goods. Prior to his government service, he spent three decades at Wall Street law firm Skadden Arps, where he fought imports from China on behalf of the U.S. steel industry, including U.S. Steel. He played a key role in negotiating the USMCA with Mexico and Canada. Lighthizer's appointment suggests a possible return to protectionism and efforts to decouple from China, raising questions about how quickly new tariffs might be implemented.
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Similar markets
Yes, with major concessions from the U.S. • 25%
Yes, with major concessions from China • 25%
Yes, with equal concessions from both sides • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
