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How will U.S. trade policy change under Robert Lighthizer by 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased tariffs • 25%
Decreased tariffs • 25%
New trade agreements • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Official policy announcements or credible news sources
Story
Trump Taps Arch-Protectionist Lighthizer for U.S. Trade Policy Amid Global Trade Concerns
Nov 11, 2024, 11:15 AM
Donald Trump has asked Robert Lighthizer, an arch protectionist, to run U.S. trade policy, according to the Financial Times. As Trump prepares for his presidency, the world is bracing for potential policy shifts, including a possible withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement for the second time—this time with faster action and less restraint. Analysts note that "the balance of power has certainly shifted in favor of the United States" as it confronts a changed China amid threats of a wider trade war.
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Significant increase in tariffs on Chinese goods • 25%
No major changes in trade policy • 25%
New trade agreements with non-China countries • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Strengthened trade restrictions • 25%
Relaxed trade restrictions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
European Union • 25%
India • 25%
Brazil • 25%
Other countries • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Major restructuring • 25%
Minor adjustments • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Tariff Increase • 25%
Tariff Decrease • 25%
New Trade Agreement • 25%
No Major Change • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs negotiated • 25%
Trade agreement revised • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improvement • 33%
Deterioration • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Increased production • 25%
Decreased production • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Significant growth in U.S. steel production • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decline in U.S. steel production • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%