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What will be the outcome of Trump's EU trade deficit warning by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
EU increases purchases of US energy • 25%
Tariffs imposed on EU goods • 25%
Negotiated settlement without tariffs • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official trade agreements, EU and US government announcements
Story
Trump Warns EU to Address Tremendous Deficit by Buying More US Oil and Gas or Face Tariffs
Dec 20, 2024, 06:30 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has issued a warning to the European Union, stating that it must address its trade deficit with the United States by significantly increasing its purchases of American oil and gas. Trump emphasized that failure to do so would result in tariffs being imposed on EU goods. He described the current deficit as 'tremendous' and highlighted the importance of large-scale purchases of U.S. energy resources to rectify the imbalance. The U.S. is currently the world's leading exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the largest oil producer, positioning it as a key player in global energy markets. This statement comes amid ongoing discussions regarding transatlantic economic relations and the potential impact of such tariffs on both economies.
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New energy trade deal • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
EU increases energy purchases • 25%
U.S. imposes tariffs • 25%
Negotiations lead to compromise • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Trade war • 25%
Increase US oil and gas imports • 25%
Impose retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Negotiate a trade agreement • 25%
Take no immediate action • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
No tariffs, enhanced border security • 25%
No tariffs, no changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increase imports significantly • 25%
Negotiate a trade deal • 25%
Impose counter-tariffs • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increase US energy imports • 25%
Negotiate alternative trade terms • 25%
File a WTO complaint • 25%
Do nothing • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs avoided through negotiation • 25%
Tariffs delayed • 25%
No change in tariff policy • 25%