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What will be the resolution of TikTok's First Amendment challenge by January 19, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
First Amendment challenge succeeds • 25%
First Amendment challenge fails • 25%
Case dismissed on other grounds • 25%
Other legal outcome • 25%
Court rulings and official legal documents
Story
TikTok Appeals to Supreme Court to Block U.S. Ban by Jan. 19, Amid Trump's Support
Dec 17, 2024, 05:47 PM
TikTok has filed an emergency application with the U.S. Supreme Court to block a federal law that mandates the app's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest its holdings by January 19, 2025, or face a ban in the U.S. The company argues that the law violates the First Amendment and would affect its 170 million American users. Amidst this legal battle, President-elect Donald Trump met with TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew at Mar-a-Lago, signaling a potential openness to stopping the ban. Trump has expressed a 'warm spot' for TikTok, citing its role in his recent election success among young voters. The law, passed by Congress in April, stems from concerns over national security risks posed by TikTok's data collection and potential content manipulation by the Chinese government. A federal appeals court upheld the law earlier this month, rejecting TikTok's First Amendment claims.
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First Amendment upheld • 25%
First Amendment rejected • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok wins on First Amendment grounds • 25%
TikTok loses on First Amendment grounds • 25%
Case dismissed on other grounds • 25%
No ruling by January 19, 2024 • 25%
Appeal granted, no ban • 25%
Appeal denied, ban enforced • 25%
Settlement reached, operations continue • 25%
Other legal outcome • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Divestment proceeds • 25%
Divestment postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Partial restrictions • 25%
Other • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Legal challenge ongoing • 25%
TikTok wins the challenge • 25%
TikTok loses the challenge • 25%
Case delayed past January 19, 2025 • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
TikTok wins the legal challenge • 25%
TikTok loses the legal challenge • 25%
Case is settled out of court • 25%
Case is postponed beyond January 19, 2024 • 25%
Ban upheld, TikTok banned • 25%
Ban delayed, temporary reprieve • 25%
Ban overturned, TikTok operations continue • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Appeal Granted • 25%
Appeal Denied • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ban upheld • 25%
Ban overturned • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
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TikTok wins • 25%
TikTok loses and divests • 25%
TikTok loses and is banned • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%