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What will be the outcome of the Türkiye-brokered agreement by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful troop deployment • 25%
Partial troop deployment • 25%
No troop deployment • 25%
Agreement breakdown • 25%
Official statements from Somalia, Ethiopia, or Türkiye, and international news coverage
Story
Somalia to Reintegrate 10,000 Ethiopian Troops in Al-Shabaab Fight After Türkiye-Brokered Deal
Jan 3, 2025, 07:16 AM
Somalia is considering reversing its decision to exclude Ethiopian troops from a multinational force fighting al-Shabaab terrorists, indicating a thaw in diplomatic relations between the two countries. Ethiopia's Defense Minister Aisha Mohammed led a delegation to Mogadishu, marking the first bilateral visit since tensions escalated over Ethiopia's plan to build a naval base in the breakaway Somali region of Somaliland. The visit follows a Türkiye-brokered agreement last month aimed at resolving the dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia, with Turkey's intervention playing a key role. The discussions in Mogadishu reaffirmed both nations' commitment to work together for peace and stability in Somalia and the region, with a focus on combating al-Shabaab terrorists. Somalia's Foreign Minister announced the resolution of the dispute with Ethiopia, paving the way for the deployment of up to 10,000 Ethiopian troops as part of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission.
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Other outcome • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations without agreement • 25%
Talks breakdown • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Improved bilateral relations • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Continuation of current regime with reforms • 25%
Federalization of Syria into autonomous regions • 25%
Establishment of a new Syrian government • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement, continued tensions • 25%
Peace agreement signed • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
Significant improvement • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
No change • 25%
Agreement abandoned • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement finalized • 25%
Successful stabilization • 25%
Deterioration of situation • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Partial stabilization • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic relations established • 25%
Continued informal talks • 25%
Strengthened diplomatic ties • 25%
Security cooperation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased economic involvement • 25%
No Significant Outcome • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Military Withdrawal • 25%
New Peace Treaty • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%