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Outcome of U.S.-Turkey-SDF Negotiations by End of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Military Withdrawal • 25%
New Peace Treaty • 25%
No Significant Outcome • 25%
Official announcements or reports from international news agencies
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U.S. State Department Extends Ceasefire Between Turkey and SDF in Manbij, Northern Syria
Dec 17, 2024, 07:06 PM
The ceasefire between Turkey and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria has been extended until the end of this week, according to the U.S. State Department. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller announced the extension, which aims to maintain peace around the northern Syrian city of Manbij, where tensions had previously escalated. The U.S. continues to engage with both the SDF and Turkey to seek a path forward, emphasizing the importance of not allowing any party to exploit the current unstable situation for narrow interests at the expense of the broader Syrian national interest.
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Establishment of a new Syrian government • 25%
Continuation of current regime with reforms • 25%
Federalization of Syria into autonomous regions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
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Stalemate • 25%
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Agreement on de-escalation measures • 25%
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Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
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Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Turkey gains significant influence in Syria • 25%
Turkey withdraws from Syrian affairs • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%