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What will be the outcome of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire by March 19, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds and leads to peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire holds but no further talks • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down • 25%
Ceasefire extended with new terms • 25%
Reports from credible international news agencies
Story
Hamas to Release Three Israeli Hostages Today: Gonen, Damari, Steinbrecher
Jan 19, 2025, 09:24 AM
Hamas has announced it will release three female Israeli hostages today as part of the first phase of a ceasefire agreement with Israel. The hostages are Romi Gonen, 24, who was abducted from the Nova music festival; Emily Damari, 28, a British-Israeli citizen taken from her home in Kfar Aza; and Doron Steinbrecher, 31, also taken from her home in Kfar Aza. Israel has confirmed receipt of the list of hostages to be freed after Hamas delayed providing the names, causing a delay in the implementation of the ceasefire. Families of the hostages have confirmed the news on social media. The release marks the beginning of an agreement that aims to secure the freedom of multiple hostages over several days.
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Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
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Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
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Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
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Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
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Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
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Ceasefire holds with full peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire holds without full agreement • 25%
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Partially successful • 25%
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Extended or renegotiated • 25%