Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage exchange deal by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Approved and implemented • 25%
Approved but not implemented • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements or news reports detailing the status of the deal
Story
Ben-Gvir Threatens to Quit Netanyahu's Government Over 'Reckless' Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal
Jan 16, 2025, 08:02 PM
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has threatened to resign from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government if a proposed ceasefire and hostage exchange deal with Hamas in Gaza is approved. Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, announced during a 9 PM press conference that his party would withdraw from the coalition government should the agreement proceed, labeling the deal as "reckless," "irresponsible," and "a disgrace," and arguing that it destroys all of Israel's military achievements in Gaza. He emphasized that if hostilities resume after the ceasefire, his party would consider rejoining the government. Ben-Gvir has also called for a complete halt to humanitarian aid to Gaza. The potential resignation of Ben-Gvir and his party could collapse Netanyahu’s coalition government.
View original story
Similar markets
No implementation • 25%
Agreement abandoned • 25%
Full implementation • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Indeterminate • 25%
Failure • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Ceasefire and hostage release successful • 25%
Neither successful • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Agreement Approved and Implemented • 25%
Agreement Approved but Not Implemented • 25%
Agreement Rejected • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Hostage death toll increases • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Deal approved without terrorist release • 25%
Deal approved with terrorist release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Hostages released without a formal deal • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
New hostages taken • 25%
Hadar Goldin's body returned • 25%
Information on Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed received • 25%
Yahya Sinwar's body returned • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 34%
No agreement reached • 33%
Hostages released • 33%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No hostages released • 25%