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What will be the outcome of negotiations between Israel and Hamas regarding hostages by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
All hostages released • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
New hostages taken • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or Hamas, or credible international news agencies
Story
Hamas Releases Video of 19-Year-Old Hostage Liri Albag Held Over 450 Days
Jan 4, 2025, 05:04 PM
Hamas has released a video showing Israeli hostage Liri Albag, a 19-year-old soldier who was abducted from the Nahal Oz base during the October 7, 2023 attack. The video, released on Saturday, shows Albag stating that she has been held captive for over 450 days, indicating it was filmed recently. Her family has authorized the release of images from the video. They recorded a message to their daughter, saying, 'We are fighting for you. You will come home alive.' There are approximately 100 hostages still held in Gaza. The Israeli government condemned the video as psychological warfare. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with Albag's parents following the video's release.
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Negotiations break down completely • 25%
Negotiations continue with no agreement • 25%
Agreement reached and hostages exchanged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Partial release • 25%
Partial agreement with some hostages released • 25%
Successful ceasefire and all hostages released • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ceasefire with Hostage Release • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Hostage Release without Ceasefire • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Hostages confirmed deceased • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
