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Market
What will be the outcome of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal negotiations by February 15, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement Approved and Implemented • 25%
Agreement Approved but Not Implemented • 25%
Agreement Rejected • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
Official statements from involved parties, news outlets
Story
Qatar Delivers Final Gaza Ceasefire and Hostage Deal to Israel and Hamas Amid Breakthrough Talks
Jan 13, 2025, 08:56 AM
Qatar has delivered a final draft of a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release agreement to Israel and Hamas for approval. The breakthrough came after negotiations in Doha involving Israeli intelligence officials, an envoy from U.S. President-elect Trump, and the Qatari Prime Minister. Both parties are expected to review the proposal, which aims to end the war in Gaza.
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Similar markets
Ceasefire only • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Neither successful • 25%
Ceasefire and hostage release successful • 25%
No agreement reached • 33%
Hostages released • 33%
Partial release of hostages • 34%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Hostages released without a formal deal • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Hostage situation unresolved • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Successful ceasefire and all hostages released • 25%
Partial agreement with some hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Partial release • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Hostage death toll increases • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Agreement approved but not implemented • 25%
Agreement approved and implemented • 25%
Negotiations continue beyond deadline • 25%
Agreement not approved • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%