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What will be the outcome of Iran's nuclear program by December 31, 2025?
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International Atomic Energy Agency•IAEA•Board of Governors•Iran•United States•France•Germany•United Kingdom•JCPOA•Atomic Energy Organization•Foreign Ministry
Resolution / Starting Odds
Iran complies with JCPOA limits • 25%
Iran expands nuclear program • 25%
New international agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
IAEA reports, official statements from Iran and international diplomatic sources
Story
IAEA Censure Iran Over Nuclear Program, Tehran Activates Thousands of Centrifuges
Nov 21, 2024, 08:55 PM
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed a censure resolution against Iran on November 21, 2024, marking the second time this year the country has faced such condemnation. The resolution, backed by the United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, criticizes Iran for failing to fully cooperate with the IAEA regarding its nuclear activities. Iran had previously suggested it would pause its high levels of uranium enrichment to avoid censure, but the IAEA's decision came despite this offer. Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels has significantly increased, reaching 32 times the limit set by the 2015 nuclear deal, the JCPOA. In response to the censure, Iran's Atomic Energy Organization announced plans to increase its nuclear centrifuge production, activating thousands of advanced centrifuges, including 4,000 IR6 centrifuges capable of enriching over a million kilograms of uranium. Iran's Foreign Ministry and the Atomic Energy Organization condemned the resolution as politically motivated, warning that it would disrupt cooperation with the IAEA and potentially escalate tensions.
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Program expanded significantly • 25%
Program expansion stalled • 25%
Program reduced • 25%
Program unchanged • 25%
Iran complies with nuclear deal terms • 25%
New sanctions imposed on Iran • 25%
Military intervention occurs • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Talks stall • 25%
Talks fail • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased inspections agreed • 25%
Sanctions reinstated • 25%
No change in current status • 25%
Other diplomatic agreement • 25%
Iran completes enrichment plans • 25%
Iran halts enrichment • 25%
Iran scales back enrichment • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
Iran agrees to new restrictions • 25%
Iran refuses further restrictions • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Negotiations Extended • 25%
Iran stops enrichment • 25%
Iran continues current level • 25%
Iran increases enrichment • 25%
Iran decreases enrichment • 25%
Iran reaches weapon-grade enrichment • 25%
Iran maintains current enrichment levels • 25%
Iran reduces enrichment levels • 25%
Iran halts enrichment • 25%
New nuclear agreement • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased sanctions imposed • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Full compliance • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Non-compliance • 25%
Other developments • 25%