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What will be the outcome for Sudan's military leadership by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Leadership change • 25%
Increased military control • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
News reports and official announcements from Sudan
Story
U.S. Officials Confirm Sudan's Military Used Chemical Weapons at Least Twice Against RSF, Sanctions Expected
Jan 16, 2025, 04:18 PM
The United States has determined that Sudan's military has employed chemical weapons in its ongoing conflict against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group. U.S. officials confirmed that these chemical weapons were used on at least two occasions. In response to these findings, sanctions against the Sudanese military chief are anticipated. This development highlights the severity of the conflict in Sudan, where the military is engaged in intense fighting with the RSF.
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Sanctions lifted • 25%
Sanctions not imposed • 25%
Sanctions imposed but ineffective • 25%
Sanctions imposed and effective • 25%
Arrest warrant issued • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Proceedings ongoing • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
RSF victory • 25%
Military victory • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Leadership dissolved • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Military takes control • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
New coalition government formed • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Sudanese Army Victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
RSF Victory • 25%
Remains in power • 25%
Steps down voluntarily • 25%
Other • 25%
Removed by force • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
Al-Burhan remains in power • 25%
Peaceful transition of power • 25%
Al-Burhan steps down • 25%