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What will be General al-Burhan's position by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Remains in power • 25%
Steps down voluntarily • 25%
Removed by force • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from Sudanese government or credible news outlets
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U.S. Officials Confirm Sudan's Military Used Chemical Weapons at Least Twice Against RSF, Authorized by General al-Burhan
Jan 16, 2025, 04:55 PM
The United States has determined that Sudan's military has used chemical weapons at least twice against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) during ongoing conflicts. This assessment, confirmed by four senior U.S. officials, indicates that the chemical weapons were deployed in recent battles as the military fights for control of the country. The specifics regarding the type of chemical weapons used remain unclear, as knowledge of the program is reportedly confined to a small group within the Sudanese military. U.S. officials noted that General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan authorized the use of these weapons. In response to these findings, sanctions against the Sudanese military chief are anticipated.
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Sanctions imposed but ineffective • 25%
Sanctions lifted • 25%
Sanctions not imposed • 25%
Sanctions imposed and effective • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Increased military control • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership dissolved • 25%
Social Services • 25%
Economic Reforms • 25%
Security and Stability • 25%
Political Reforms • 25%
Mahamat Idriss Deby • 25%
Other • 25%
Opposition Leader • 25%
Successor from Patriotic Salvation Movement • 25%
Security and defense • 25%
Political restructuring • 25%
Economic reform • 25%
Refugee reintegration • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Retires from politics • 25%
Returns to political role in Syria • 25%
Remains in exile • 25%
Seeks political role in another country • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
RSF Victory • 25%
Sudanese Army Victory • 25%