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What will be the outcome of the ICC's proceedings against Myanmar's junta leader by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Arrest warrant issued • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Proceedings ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official ICC announcements and legal documents
Story
ICC Seeks Arrest Warrant for Myanmar Junta Leader Over 2017 Rohingya Crimes in Bangladesh
Nov 30, 2024, 11:40 PM
The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) has requested an arrest warrant for the leader of Myanmar's military junta. The warrant pertains to crimes against humanity committed in 2017 against the Rohingya Muslim minority, specifically deportation and persecution that crossed into Bangladesh, a member state of the ICC. The ICC lacks jurisdiction over crimes committed entirely within Myanmar by its nationals.
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No legal proceedings • 25%
Conviction • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
Conviction for attempted murder • 25%
Case dismissed due to mental health • 25%
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Ukraine wins the case • 25%
Ukraine loses the case • 25%
Case is ongoing • 25%
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Yes • 50%
Acquitted • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Convicted and sentenced to jail • 25%
Convicted but given probation • 25%
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All convicted • 25%
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No decision by deadline • 25%
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Extradition denied • 25%
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Trial begins • 25%
Majority granted amnesty • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
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Acquitted • 25%
Ongoing • 25%
Plea bargain • 25%
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Arrest warrants issued • 25%
No action taken • 25%
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