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What will be the main political outcome in South Korea following the resolution by April 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Resignation and snap election • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Other significant political changes • 25%
Official announcements and verified news reports
Story
South Korean Parliament Urges Arrest of President Yoon and 7 Officials, Discusses Snap Election
Dec 10, 2024, 08:11 AM
South Korea's National Assembly has passed a resolution urging the immediate arrest of President Yoon Suk-yeol and seven other officials following a botched martial law declaration on December 3. The resolution, passed on December 10, has led to discussions within the ruling party about potential scenarios to minimize political fallout, including the possibility of Yoon's resignation by the end of April next year, followed by a snap election two months later.
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President Yoon remains in office • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Political stalemate • 25%
Military takes control • 25%
Yoon remains President • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
Yoon Resigns • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
Government change • 25%
Stability restored • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Governmental changes • 25%
Escalation to further conflict • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Crisis resolved • 25%
Other • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
Escalation of crisis • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Acting President remains • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
New presidential elections called • 25%
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo becomes president • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%