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Outcome of South Korea's political situation by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Stability restored • 25%
Government change • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the South Korean government or major news outlets
Story
Blinken Welcomes South Korea's Lifting of Martial Law, Urges Peaceful Resolution
Dec 6, 2024, 01:35 AM
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law on Tuesday, raising concerns over the nation's political stability. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, expressing that 'political disagreements need to be resolved peacefully and in accordance with the rule of law,' spoke with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Taeyul. Blinken welcomed the lifting of martial law, conveyed confidence that the democratic process will prevail, and reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to the alliance. South Korea's foreign ministry stated that it will continue to communicate closely with the US for the alliance to develop 'without wavering.'
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Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Escalation to further conflict • 25%
Governmental changes • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Yoon remains President • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Military takes control • 25%
Political stalemate • 25%
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Crisis resolved • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
Escalation of crisis • 25%
Other • 25%
Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
Yoon Resigns • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
New presidential elections called • 25%
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo becomes president • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased instability • 25%
Decreased instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resignation and snap election • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Other significant political changes • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
President Yoon remains • 25%
Interim president appointed • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other • 25%