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How will the political turmoil in South Korea be resolved by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New elections called • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
Major news outlets and official government statements
Story
South Korea's Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun Resigns Amid Political Turmoil Over Failed Martial Law
Dec 4, 2024, 10:44 AM
South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun has offered his resignation and apologized to citizens on Wednesday following the failed imposition of martial law by President Yoon Suk Yeol. Kim took full responsibility for the confusion and concern caused by the brief enforcement of martial law, which was lifted after approximately six hours when the parliament voted to cancel it. He stated, "I apologize for causing public confusion about martial law. I will take responsibility for all situations related to martial law." Reports suggest that Kim influenced or proposed the introduction of martial law. The opposition has initiated impeachment motions against both President Yoon and Defense Minister Kim. In response, President Yoon accepted Kim's resignation and nominated Choi Byung-hyuk, the ambassador to Saudi Arabia and a retired military officer, as the new defense minister.
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Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Yoon Resigns • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Governmental changes • 25%
Escalation to further conflict • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
Government change • 25%
Stability restored • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
Escalation of crisis • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
Crisis resolved • 25%
Other • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Other significant political changes • 25%
Resignation and snap election • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Acting President remains • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Other • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
New elections held • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Interim president appointed • 25%
President Yoon remains • 25%
Other • 25%