Loading...
Market
What will be the status of South Korea's political leadership by December 31, 2025?
2
North Korea•Sea of Japan•Antony Blinken•Seoul•South Korea•Korean Peninsula•Japan•Blinken•Yoon Suk Yeol
Resolution / Starting Odds
New President elected • 25%
Acting President remains • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official government announcements and international news reports
Story
North Korea Fires Intermediate-Range Missile into Sea of Japan Amid Blinken's Seoul Visit
Jan 6, 2025, 06:46 AM
North Korea fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan, marking its first missile launch of 2025. The launch occurred during a visit by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Seoul, South Korea, where he was meeting with Acting President Choi Sang-mok and Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul. The missile, launched around noon local time, traveled approximately 1,100 kilometers before landing in the sea between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Blinken condemned the launch as a violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions and emphasized the need for strengthened cooperation between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan in response to North Korea's actions. The launch comes amidst political turmoil in South Korea following the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who had declared martial law in December.
View original story
Similar markets
Crisis resolved • 25%
Other • 25%
Escalation of crisis • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
Other • 25%
Stability restored • 25%
Government change • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Yoon Remains President • 25%
New Acting President • 25%
New President Elected • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Other • 25%
Military leader • 25%
Opposition leader • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Other changes • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Interim President Appointed • 25%
Other Scenario • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol remains President • 25%
New President Elected • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Escalation to further conflict • 25%
Governmental changes • 25%