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What will be the outcome of the political turmoil in South Korea by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements, news reports from reputable agencies, or government statements
Story
South Korean President Yoon's Arrest Blocked by 200 Security Personnel in Five-Hour Standoff
Jan 3, 2025, 11:25 AM
South Korea's anti-corruption agency attempted to execute an arrest warrant against impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol, but was blocked by approximately 200 presidential security forces and military personnel, including armed security personnel who formed human barricades. The five-hour standoff ended with the suspension of the arrest attempt due to safety concerns for the investigators. The presidential security service refused to cooperate, citing legal and security reasons. Supporters and opponents of Yoon gathered near the presidential residence, leading to chaotic scenes and protests. The attempted arrest has plunged South Korea into political turmoil, with concerns over the stability of the presidency and the rule of law. The anti-corruption agency may reattempt the arrest before the warrant expires on January 6 and has indicated it may take legal action against security officials obstructing the arrest.
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Escalation of crisis • 25%
Other • 25%
Crisis resolved • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation to further conflict • 25%
Governmental changes • 25%
Government change • 25%
Stability restored • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
Yoon Resigns • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
Acting President remains • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased instability • 25%
Increased instability • 25%
Other Actions • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
Condemnations Issued • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Protests remain evenly matched • 25%
Pro-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Anti-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%