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What will be the impact of the hush money trial outcome on Trump's 2024 presidential campaign?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significantly Positive Impact • 25%
No Significant Impact • 25%
Significantly Negative Impact • 25%
Neutral Impact • 25%
Major news outlets analysis and polling data
Story
Trump Hush Money Trial Nears End as Cohen Admits to Stealing Tens of Thousands
May 20, 2024, 11:52 AM
As former President Donald Trump's Manhattan criminal trial on hush money payments nears its conclusion, key witness Michael Cohen has admitted during cross-examination to stealing tens of thousands of dollars from the Trump Organization. Cohen's credibility has been a focal point, with defense attorneys arguing that his testimony has been disastrous for the prosecution. The trial is set to wrap up soon, with closing arguments expected next week. Trump, who has been silent throughout the trial, is unlikely to testify. The outcome of the trial could result in a mistrial, an acquittal, or the first-ever felony conviction of a former U.S. president.
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Positive Impact • 33%
No Impact • 33%
Negative Impact • 34%
Significantly harms • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Boosts his campaign • 34%
Increase in support • 33%
Decrease in support • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Significantly damaged • 25%
Moderately affected • 25%
Minor or no impact • 25%
Enhanced • 25%
Trump drops out of 2024 presidential race • 33%
Trump continues 2024 presidential race • 33%
Trump switches to independent run • 34%
Significantly damaged • 33%
Somewhat damaged • 33%
No impact • 34%
Significantly damaged • 33%
Moderately affected • 33%
No significant impact • 34%
Significantly Positive • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Significantly Negative • 25%
No Impact • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Boosts Republican Candidate • 25%
Damages Republican Candidate • 25%
No Effect on Republican Candidate • 25%
Boosts Democratic Candidate • 25%
Significant negative impact • 33%
No significant impact • 34%
Positive impact • 33%