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What will be the change in Greenland's political status by end of 2025 due to U.S. interest?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased autonomy • 25%
Maintains current status • 25%
Becomes U.S. territory • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Official announcements from the Greenlandic or Danish government
Story
Trump Considers Military Intervention for Greenland, Despite Danish Rejection
Jan 9, 2025, 06:55 AM
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has expressed renewed interest in acquiring Greenland, a semi-autonomous part of the Kingdom of Denmark, citing its strategic importance for national and economic security. Trump's interest in Greenland is driven by several factors, including the island's control over key maritime and air routes, its rich deposits of minerals, oil, gas, and rare earth minerals crucial for telecommunications and other technologies. The melting of Arctic ice due to climate change is also seen as a potential opportunity for new shipping routes and access to previously inaccessible resources. Trump's ambition to acquire Greenland is also viewed as a means to expand U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere and to cement his legacy, according to sources familiar with his thinking. Trump has not ruled out military intervention to achieve this goal. His son, Donald Trump Jr., visited Greenland recently, underscoring the seriousness of the interest. The Danish government has reiterated that Greenland is not for sale, and any move by Trump could lead to tensions with NATO ally Denmark. Trump sees Greenland as a strategic addition to U.S. territory.
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Remains part of Denmark • 25%
Joins the U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Becomes independent • 25%
Greenland reaffirms sovereignty • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Unclear changes • 25%
Reduced autonomy • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased autonomy • 25%
Strengthens ties with Denmark • 25%
No change in alliances • 25%
Seeks UN support • 25%
Seeks new alliances • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Economic Coercion • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
No Action • 25%
Becomes US territory • 25%
Gains independence • 25%
Remains under Danish control • 25%
Other • 25%
Encourages Greenlandic decision • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Open to negotiations • 25%
Firm rejection • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Becomes a U.S. territory • 25%
Becomes independent • 25%
Remains part of Denmark • 25%
No negotiation attempt • 25%
Successful negotiation for control • 25%
Other diplomatic agreement • 25%
Negotiation attempt but unsuccessful • 25%
US acquires Greenland • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Denmark retains control without negotiations • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
No action • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic incentives • 25%
Formal acquisition negotiations • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Economic agreements • 25%
No significant change • 25%