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What will be Greenland's political status by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Remains part of Denmark • 25%
Becomes independent • 25%
Joins the U.S. • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements by the Greenlandic government, Danish government, or international news outlets
Story
Trump Threatens Tariffs on Denmark, Citing Greenland's Strategic Value for National Security and Free World
Jan 7, 2025, 06:05 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Denmark if it does not relinquish control of Greenland, asserting that the territory is vital for U.S. national security due to its strategic value. Trump stated that Greenland, home to approximately 45,000 people, is needed to protect the 'free world' from the presence of Chinese and Russian ships in the area. He questioned whether Denmark has a legal right to Greenland, suggesting that if it does, it should cede the territory to the U.S. Greenland's leader has repeatedly stated that the territory is not for sale. Trump also mentioned that he would consider tariffs at a 'very high level' if Greenland were to vote for independence or to join the U.S.
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Other outcome • 25%
Becomes independent • 25%
Remains part of Denmark • 25%
Becomes a U.S. territory • 25%
Remains under Danish control • 25%
Becomes US territory • 25%
Gains independence • 25%
Other • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Becomes U.S. territory • 25%
Maintains current status • 25%
Increased autonomy • 25%
Referendum canceled • 25%
Independence rejected • 25%
Independence approved • 25%
Referendum postponed • 25%
Remain with Denmark • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Independence • 25%
Referendum not held • 25%
Independence • 33%
Join the U.S. • 33%
Remain with Denmark • 34%
No legal decision made • 25%
Denmark's sovereignty challenged • 25%
Denmark's sovereignty upheld • 25%
Other legal outcome • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%