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What actions will TikTok users in the U.S. take in response to the ban by January 19, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Switch to alternative apps • 25%
Use VPNs to access TikTok • 25%
Stop using TikTok • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Surveys, social media analysis, and media reports
Story
TikTok to Shut Down U.S. App Sunday Unless Supreme Court Intervenes in Ban
Jan 15, 2025, 04:09 AM
TikTok is preparing to shut down its U.S. app on Sunday, January 19th, unless the Supreme Court intervenes to block the federal ban requiring the app to be sold to a non-Chinese entity. The popular video-sharing platform, owned by China-based ByteDance, faces a nationwide ban unless it complies with the law mandating divestiture by January 19th, 2025. TikTok's legal team has urged the Supreme Court to consider the broader implications of banning the app, warning that it could set a precedent for government overreach in content censorship. However, the Supreme Court appeared skeptical of TikTok's arguments that forcing it to divest or cease operations would violate free speech rights, leaving the app with few paths to survival. ByteDance has stated it will not sell TikTok. President-elect Donald J. Trump has requested to prevent the ban, but the Supreme Court has signaled it may deny the request. If the ban proceeds, TikTok users in the United States will lose access to the app, even if they have it already installed, and will be redirected to a website providing details about the ban.
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Comply with the ban • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Seek Supreme Court intervention • 25%
Negotiate with U.S. government • 25%
Protests or legal action by users • 25%
Minimal impact on user base • 25%
Significant migration to alternative platforms • 25%
Other significant reactions • 25%
Minimal impact, users adapt • 25%
Major migration to other platforms • 25%
Significant protests and public outcry • 25%
Other response • 25%
Divest from ByteDance • 25%
Challenge in court • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Widespread opposition • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Widespread support • 25%
Indifference • 25%
Comply with divestment • 25%
Negotiate settlement • 25%
File new lawsuit • 25%
No major action • 25%
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease by less than 25% • 25%
Decrease by 25-50% • 25%
TikTok initiates legal action • 25%
U.S. government extends deadline • 25%
No significant action • 25%
TikTok complies with data provision • 25%
Minor decrease (<25%) • 25%
Moderate decrease (25-50%) • 25%
Significant decrease (>50%) • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Comply with ban • 25%
Shut down U.S. operations • 25%
Other • 25%
Sell U.S. operations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban is enforced • 25%
Ban is reversed by Trump • 25%
Ban is temporarily blocked by Supreme Court • 25%
50-100 million • 25%
More than 150 million • 25%
100-150 million • 25%
Less than 50 million • 25%