Loading...
Market
U.S.-Canada trade relations improve by end of 2025?
3
Justin Trudeau•Donald Trump•Canada•United States•Trudeau•Canadian•Trump•American•Pierre Poilievre•Conservative Party
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official trade agreements or announcements from U.S. or Canadian governments
Story
Trudeau Says 'No Snowball's Chance' Canada Becomes 51st U.S. State
Jan 9, 2025, 09:25 PM
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has firmly dismissed U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's suggestion that Canada should become the 51st state of the United States. Trudeau stated that there is "not a snowball's chance in hell" of Canada joining the U.S., emphasizing Canadians' pride in their national identity. He characterized Trump's remarks as a distraction from the potential impact of a proposed 25% tariff on Canadian imports that Trump has threatened to impose, warning that such tariffs would make goods more expensive for American consumers. Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada's Conservative Party and likely the next prime minister, also rejected the idea, stating, "Canada will never be the 51st state. We are a great and independent country." Trump had suggested using "economic force" to merge Canada with the United States, prompting strong responses from Canadian leaders who affirmed their country's sovereignty.
View original story
Similar markets
Unchanged • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Improved • 25%
Worsened • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Significant trade conflict • 25%
Trade agreement revised • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs negotiated • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Increased military cooperation • 25%
Formal merger talks • 25%
Strengthened economic ties • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Negotiated resolution • 25%
Tensions escalate • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
No major changes • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Significant tariff reductions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tariffs increased • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Dispute unresolved • 25%
Canada agrees to new terms • 25%
U.S. imposes tariff • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Deteriorated Relations • 25%