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Status of U.S.-Canada trade relations by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved • 25%
Worsened • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Official trade policy documents and statements from both governments
Story
Trump to Trudeau: If Canada Can't Survive Without "Ripping Off" U.S., Become 51st State
Dec 3, 2024, 02:23 AM
During a meeting at Mar-a-Lago, President-elect Donald Trump suggested to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that if Canada could not handle new U.S. tariffs, including a proposed 25% tariff that Trudeau warned would "kill" the Canadian economy, then perhaps Canada should become the 51st state of the United States, with Trudeau serving as its governor. Sources report that Trudeau laughed nervously at the remark. Trump made the suggestion in response to Trudeau's concerns, implying that if Canada could not survive without "ripping off" the U.S. to the tune of $100 billion a year, joining the U.S. might be an option. The exchange was reported by Fox News and other outlets.
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Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Significant trade conflict • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
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Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs negotiated • 25%
Trade agreement revised • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
No agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs increased • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
U.S. imposes tariff • 25%
Canada agrees to new terms • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Dispute unresolved • 25%
Trade volume decreases • 25%
Trade volume remains stable • 25%
Trade volume increases • 25%
Other impacts • 25%
Tensions escalate • 25%
Negotiated resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Increase in U.S. trade deficit • 25%
Decrease in U.S. trade deficit • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Deal reached excluding Mexico • 25%
Deal reached including Mexico • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%