Loading...
Market
Primary outcome of Israel-Hamas ceasefire by April 30, 2025?
2
Hamas•Israeli•ICRC•Gaza Strip•Romi Gonen•Emily Damari•Doron Steinbrecher•Israel•Israeli Defense Forces•IDF•Shin Bet•Gaza•Red Cross•Netzarim Corridor
Resolution / Starting Odds
Continued ceasefire • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Formal peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the United Nations or relevant government bodies
Story
Hamas Hands Over Three Israeli Hostages to Red Cross in First Release Since Ceasefire
Jan 19, 2025, 03:09 PM
Hamas has handed over three Israeli female hostages to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in the northern Gaza Strip. The hostages, identified as Romi Gonen (24), Emily Damari (28), and Doron Steinbrecher (31), have been in Hamas captivity since they were taken from Israel and are now making their way to Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Shin Bet forces in Gaza. This marks the first time the hostages have met with the Red Cross since their captivity began. The transfer, confirmed by the ICRC, is the first release of hostages since a ceasefire went into effect Sunday morning. Footage of the handover has been released, and the hostages are being transported through the Netzarim Corridor area.
View original story
Similar markets
Sustained peace • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Negotiations continue • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire extended with negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire holds without full agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire ends with no agreement • 25%
Partial agreement with limited hostilities • 25%
Successful extension of ceasefire • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire with conditions • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Ceasefire Talks Suspended • 25%
Complete Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Partial Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violations • 25%
Minor violations occur • 25%
Major violations occur • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Partial implementation with tensions • 25%
Sustained peace • 25%
Ceasefire delayed but commences • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapses • 25%
Partial implementation with issues • 25%
Ceasefire commences successfully • 25%