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What will be the impact on civilian areas in Lebanon due to the Israeli offensive by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant civilian displacement • 25%
Moderate civilian displacement • 25%
Minimal civilian displacement • 25%
No significant impact on civilians • 25%
Reports from credible humanitarian organizations such as the UN, Red Cross, or credible news sources
Story
Israeli Military to Accelerate Offensive Against Hezbollah Today
Sep 24, 2024, 11:06 AM
Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi announced that the Israeli military will accelerate its offensive operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon today. In an assessment of the situation, Halevi emphasized that Hezbollah must not be given a break and called for continued vigorous action in all arenas. He also mentioned that all formations will be thickened. The decision to intensify military actions comes amid ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.
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Increased displacement • 33%
Increased casualties • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Moderate impact (limited casualties and damage) • 33%
Severe impact (high casualties and widespread damage) • 33%
Less than 100 • 25%
100-499 • 25%
500-999 • 25%
1000 or more • 25%
Increased internal political instability • 25%
Strengthening of Hezbollah's influence • 25%
International diplomatic intervention • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Less than 50 casualties • 25%
50-100 casualties • 25%
More than 100 casualties • 25%
Cannot be determined • 25%
100-200 • 25%
201-300 • 25%
301-400 • 25%
401 or more • 25%
Israel withdraws troops • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Less than 300 • 25%
300-500 • 25%
501-700 • 25%
More than 700 • 25%
Less than 100 • 25%
100-500 • 25%
501-1000 • 25%
More than 1000 • 25%
De-escalation and peace talks • 25%
Continued low-level hostilities • 25%
Major escalation involving multiple countries • 25%
Other unexpected outcome • 25%
0 • 25%
1-5 • 25%
6-10 • 25%
More than 10 • 25%