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What will be the resolution of the conflict between Turkey and the SDF in northern Syria by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Continued military conflict • 25%
Ceasefire without formal agreement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Official announcements and peace agreements reported by international news organizations
Story
Turkey Denies Ceasefire with SDF, Calls US Statement a 'Slip of the Tongue'
Dec 19, 2024, 09:19 AM
Turkey has denied any ceasefire agreement with the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria, contradicting a US announcement. A Turkish Defense Ministry official stated that Turkey does not negotiate with terrorist organizations and considered the US statement a 'slip of the tongue.' The official added that preparations and measures to fight terrorism will continue until the PKK/YPG lay down their arms and foreign fighters leave Syria. Turkey believes that Syria's new administration and the Syrian National Army, alongside the Syrian people, will liberate regions occupied by the PKK/YPG. The Turkish Defense Ministry emphasized that it will continue to take preventive and destructive measures against terrorist groups in Syria and cooperate with Syria's new administration in combating terrorism. Meanwhile, the SDF accused Turkey and Turkish-backed groups of not abiding by a decision to declare a ceasefire in Manbij and northern regions. The SDF announced that they will fight Turkey and its allied forces in Kobani, called on the people of Kobani to carry weapons, and emphasized the importance of stopping escalation, halting all military operations, and resolving all pending issues.
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SDF regains control • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Complete success with full control established • 25%
Partial success with some areas controlled • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Failure with loss of territory • 25%
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Continued military engagement • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Military Withdrawal • 25%
New Peace Treaty • 25%
No Significant Outcome • 25%
United States • 25%
Russia • 25%
United Nations • 25%
Other • 25%
Full withdrawal completed • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Withdrawal not completed • 25%
Agreement renegotiated • 25%
YPG disbanded • 25%
YPG relocated • 25%
YPG remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful Constitutional Reform • 25%
Increased Security Cooperation • 25%
Deterioration in Relations • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Syria takes action independently • 25%
Turkey intervenes militarily • 25%
Joint action by Syria and Turkey • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Successful elimination of PKK/YPG presence • 25%
Significant reduction of PKK/YPG activities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased PKK/YPG activities • 25%
Increased territorial control • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%