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Outcome of U.S.-EU trade negotiations on oil and gas by December 31, 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
EU agrees to increase purchases • 25%
U.S. imposes tariffs • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from U.S. or EU trade representatives
Story
President-elect Trump Warns EU: Buy U.S. Oil and Gas or Face Tariffs
Dec 20, 2024, 07:07 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has warned the European Union that it must reduce its "tremendous deficit" with the United States by making large-scale purchases of American oil and gas or face tariffs. In a post on Truth Social at 1:09 AM EST on December 20, Trump stated, "I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!" The United States is the world's top exporter of liquefied natural gas and the largest oil producer. This ultimatum highlights potential trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU over energy imports.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
EU increases energy purchases • 25%
U.S. imposes tariffs • 25%
Negotiations lead to compromise • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Increased LNG imports, no tariffs • 25%
Increased LNG imports, tariffs imposed • 25%
No change in LNG imports, no tariffs • 25%
No change in LNG imports, tariffs imposed • 25%
New energy trade deal • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
