Market
Outcome of U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement by Jan 20, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement Reached • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Talks Postponed • 25%
Talks Canceled • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. or Iranian governments or credible news reports
Story
Biden Reviewed Plans to Strike Iran's Nuclear Sites if Tehran Advances Toward Bomb Before Jan. 20
Jan 2, 2025, 08:22 PM
President Joe Biden recently discussed potential plans to strike Iran's nuclear facilities if Tehran accelerates its pursuit of a nuclear weapon before January 20. In a meeting held roughly one month ago that remained secret until now, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan presented Biden with options for a possible U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear sites. Some of Biden's top aides argued internally that the acceleration of Iran's nuclear program and the weakening of Iran and its proxies in their war with Israel provide an imperative and an opportunity to strike, with reduced risk of retaliation. Sullivan did not make any recommendations to Biden during the meeting, and Biden did not give the green light for the plans or make any decisions.
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