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What political changes will occur in Russia following Kirillov's assassination by December 31, 2025?
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Uzbek•Akhmad Kurbanov•Igor Kirillov•Russia•Kirillov•Ilya Polikarpov•Moscow•Federal Security Service•FSB•Kurbanov•Ukrainian•European•Chernoye•Russian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased security measures • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Diplomatic action against Ukraine • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Reports from Russian political analysts or major news outlets
Story
Russia Detains 29-Year-Old Uzbek Over General Kirillov's Killing, Claims Ukrainian Involvement
Dec 18, 2024, 07:31 AM
Russian authorities have detained a 29-year-old Uzbek citizen, identified as Akhmad Kurbanov, in connection with the killing of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of Russia's Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defense Forces. Kirillov and his aide, Ilya Polikarpov, were killed on Tuesday by a bomb hidden in an electric scooter near Kirillov's residence in Moscow. The Federal Security Service (FSB) said Kurbanov confessed to being recruited by Ukrainian special services, who allegedly offered him $100,000 and a European passport to carry out the assassination. The suspect was detained in the village of Chernoye, and the investigation is being conducted by Russia's Investigative Committee. Russian authorities claim the bombing was orchestrated by Ukrainian intelligence services.
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No significant changes • 25%
Policy shift towards increased militarization • 25%
Policy shift towards de-escalation • 25%
Leadership change within Russian government • 25%
Putin is replaced • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
Putin steps down • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Internal security breach identified • 25%
Ukraine officially blamed • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Putin replaced by ally • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
Putin replaced by opposition • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Cyber retaliation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military action against Ukraine • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Investigation concludes without further arrests • 25%
Multiple arrests and convictions • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Calls for investigation • 25%
Condemnation of Ukraine • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Support for Ukraine • 25%
Military action against Ukraine • 25%
Increased internal security measures • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No significant response • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military actions in Ukraine • 25%
Diplomatic measures against Ukraine • 25%
Cyber attacks attributed to Russia • 25%
Policy changes announced • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Commander disciplined • 25%
More restrictive • 25%
Other changes • 25%
No change • 25%
Less restrictive • 25%
