Market
What will be the impact of the leadership change on Russian military strategy in Syria by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Change in strategic focus • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Analysis from credible military experts or reports from international news agencies
Story
Russian Commander in Syria, Kisel, Removed; Chayko Likely to Replace
Nov 30, 2024, 07:06 PM
Lieutenant General Sergey Kisel, the commander of Russian forces in Syria, has been removed from his post. Reports from Russian media and war bloggers indicate that Kisel was dismissed, with some sources suggesting that Colonel General Alexander Chayko, a former commander of Russia's Eastern Military District who has led Russian forces in Syria multiple times, might take over the position. The reasons for Kisel's removal are not explicitly stated, but some Russian channels are attributing the change to issues with the Syrian military, while others are directing blame at Kisel himself.
View original story
Similar markets
Increased military presence • 25%
No change in military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increase in military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in military presence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Reinforcement • 25%
Other response • 25%
Yes, complete overhaul • 25%
Yes, partial changes • 25%
No changes • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
Existing leadership remains • 25%
New military commander appointed • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Russia increases involvement • 25%
Russia reduces involvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New Commander Appointed • 25%
Current Commander Remains • 25%
Other • 25%
Operation Ceased • 25%
Stabilizing influence • 25%
Destabilizing influence • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased Russian Control • 25%
International Intervention • 25%
Increased Rebel Control • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Decrease • 50%
Increase • 50%
Marhaf Abu Qasra confirmed as permanent Minister • 25%
Position abolished • 25%
New Minister appointed • 25%
Marhaf Abu Qasra remains acting • 25%