Market
Leadership changes in Russian government by end of 2025
2
Russian•Alexei Navalny•Vadim Kobzev•Alexei Liptser•Igor Sergunin•Navalny•The Patriot•Vladimir Putin•Arctic•Kremlin•United States•European Union•Julia Navalnaya
Resolution / Starting Odds
Putin remains in power • 25%
Putin replaced by ally • 25%
Putin replaced by opposition • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian government or credible international news agencies
Story
Russia Jails Navalny's Lawyers for Extremism, Sentenced to Up to 5.5 Years
Jan 17, 2025, 12:39 PM
A Russian court has sentenced three former lawyers of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny to prison terms ranging from 3.5 to 5.5 years on charges of participating in an extremist organization. The lawyers—Vadim Kobzev, Alexei Liptser, and Igor Sergunin—were arrested in October 2023 and accused of passing messages from Navalny while he was imprisoned, which were used to produce his posthumously published book "The Patriot." Navalny, a prominent critic of President Vladimir Putin, died in February 2024 under unclear circumstances in an Arctic prison camp. The sentencing of his lawyers underscores the Kremlin's escalating crackdown on dissent, drawing condemnation from the United States and the European Union. Navalny's widow, Julia Navalnaya, has called for their immediate release, stating that they are political prisoners.
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No leadership change • 25%
Putin is replaced • 25%
Putin steps down • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
Policy shift towards increased militarization • 25%
Leadership change within Russian government • 25%
Policy shift towards de-escalation • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
New military commander appointed • 25%
Existing leadership remains • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
Yes, complete overhaul • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other response • 25%
Yes, partial changes • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Diplomatic action against Ukraine • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
New leadership through elections • 25%
New leadership through other means • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Military coup • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Opposition takes power • 25%
Maduro replaced by ally • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Change in strategic focus • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President • 25%
Other • 25%
New President from Zelenskyy's Party • 25%
New President from Opposition Party • 25%