Market
Will there be a change in Russian military leadership by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
New military commander appointed • 25%
Existing leadership remains • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian government or credible media reports
Story
Russia Recruits 180,000 Convicts for War Against Ukraine, Advancing 4,000 Square Kilometers Since November 2024
Jan 3, 2025, 07:38 AM
Ukrainian intelligence reports indicate that Russia has recruited up to 180,000 prisoners to fight in the ongoing conflict against Ukraine. This information was confirmed by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, which noted that this recruitment effort has been ongoing since at least November 2024. The recruitment of convicts is part of Russia's broader military strategy, which has seen significant territorial advances in Ukraine, with an analysis revealing that Russia advanced by nearly 4,000 square kilometers in 2024, a sevenfold increase compared to the previous year.
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Other response • 25%
Yes, partial changes • 25%
Yes, complete overhaul • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Current Commander Remains • 25%
New Commander Appointed • 25%
Operation Ceased • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Change in strategic focus • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Putin steps down • 25%
Putin is replaced • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Putin replaced by opposition • 25%
Putin replaced by ally • 25%
Other • 25%
No major changes • 25%
Another senior military official removed • 25%
New Defense Minister appointed • 25%
New military commander appointed • 25%
Leadership unknown • 25%
Shared leadership structure • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Leadership change within Russian government • 25%
Policy shift towards increased militarization • 25%
Policy shift towards de-escalation • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Another known candidate • 25%
No appointment by this date • 25%
A currently unknown candidate • 25%
Alexander Chayko • 25%
