Market
What will be the impact of the US two-gender policy on federal employment by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
No change • 25%
Policy reversal • 25%
Significant policy adaptation • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from federal agencies
Story
Trump Announces Immediate Policy: U.S. Recognizes Only Two Genders, Male and Female
Jan 20, 2025, 05:32 PM
President Donald Trump announced today that the United States government will officially recognize only two genders—male and female—effective immediately. "As of today, it will henceforth be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders: male and female," Trump said.
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Similar markets
Policy partially implemented • 25%
Policy fully implemented • 25%
Policy reversed • 25%
Policy unchanged • 25%
Changes reversed • 25%
No changes • 25%
Minimal changes • 25%
Significant changes implemented • 25%
Increase in diversity • 25%
Decrease in diversity • 25%
No change • 25%
Insufficient data • 25%
Increase • 25%
Reallocation • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No change • 25%
No significant international reaction • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Condemnation by EU • 25%
Support by at least one country • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No Change • 25%
Data Not Available • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Introduce but not pass legislation • 25%
Pass legislation reversing policy • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant incidents reported • 25%
No incidents reported • 25%
Minor incidents reported • 25%
Policy not fully implemented • 25%
Increased turnover • 25%
Data unavailable • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased turnover • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in federal workforce • 25%
Increase in federal workforce • 25%