Market
What will be the international response to Belarus's 2025 presidential election?
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Marco Rubio•American•Anastassia Nuhfer•Belarusian•Nuhfer•Biden•Belarus•Alexander Lukashenko•Europe•Christopher Smith•Western
Resolution / Starting Odds
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Statements from international organizations like the EU, UN, and credible news outlets
Story
Belarus Frees Anastassia Nuhfer in Gesture of Goodwill Amid Controversial Election
Jan 26, 2025, 05:23 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the release of American citizen Anastassia Nuhfer from a Belarusian prison. Nuhfer, 48, was detained in December 2024 during the Biden administration, reportedly linked to protests in 2020. The reasons for her detention remain unclear. Her release was described as a unilateral gesture of goodwill by Belarus, coinciding with the country's controversial presidential election. President Alexander Lukashenko, often referred to as "Europe's last dictator," is expected to secure another term amid accusations of election manipulation and a crackdown on dissent. The U.S. State Department credited its diplomatic efforts, including the involvement of Deputy Assistant Secretary Christopher Smith, in securing Nuhfer's release. This development highlights ongoing tensions between Belarus and Western nations over human rights and democratic practices.
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General acceptance of the results • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Calls for dialogue without sanctions • 25%
Condemnation and new sanctions • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No significant action • 25%
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Largely disputed • 25%
Recognized by some, disputed by others • 25%
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Undecided by February 28, 2025 • 25%
Recognized by most countries • 25%
Recognized by some countries • 25%
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Not recognized by EU and US • 25%
Recognized by Russia and allies • 25%
Widely recognized • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
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Other actions • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Not recognized by either • 25%
Recognized by both Russia and China • 25%
Recognized by China • 25%
Recognized by Russia • 25%
Other candidate wins • 10%
Election annulled • 10%
No clear outcome by January 31, 2025 • 10%
Lukashenko wins • 70%
No significant action • 25%
Mediation efforts • 25%
Diplomatic isolation • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Call for investigation • 25%
Support • 25%
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No official stance • 25%
Organize mass protests • 25%
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Form a government-in-exile • 25%
Seek international support • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Weakened ties • 25%
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Increased tension • 25%