Market
How many nuclear bombs will Iran be capable of producing by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 5 • 25%
5 to 8 • 25%
9 to 12 • 25%
More than 12 • 25%
U.S. intelligence reports and IAEA assessments
Story
Iran Dramatically Increases 60% Uranium Enrichment Capacity at Fordow, IAEA Chief Grossi Reveals
Dec 6, 2024, 01:52 PM
Iran is dramatically increasing its capacity to produce uranium enriched up to 60% purity, which is close to weapons-grade levels. According to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi, Iran's production rate of highly enriched uranium is expected to increase seven or eight times from the previous rate of 5-7 kilograms per month. Grossi revealed in an interview with Reuters that Iran informed the IAEA it intends to feed uranium enriched up to 20%, rather than the current 5%, into two interconnected centrifuge cascades at its Fordow facility, further enriching to up to 60% purity. The IAEA verified this development on December 5. A U.S. intelligence report also indicates that Iran is capable of producing more than 12 nuclear bombs if it enriches its uranium stockpiles.
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10 or more bombs • 25%
0-3 bombs • 25%
4-6 bombs • 25%
7-9 bombs • 25%
Decrease enrichment levels • 25%
Increase enrichment levels • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Maintain current levels • 25%
Nuclear program dismantled • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant advancements • 25%
Reduced nuclear activities • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New sanctions imposed on Iran • 25%
Military intervention occurs • 25%
Iran complies with nuclear deal terms • 25%
Significant acceleration • 25%
Significant deceleration • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%