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What will the IAEA report about Iran's uranium enrichment by mid-2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No significant change • 25%
Increased enrichment to 60% • 25%
Increased enrichment to 90% • 25%
Reduction in enrichment levels • 25%
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports
Story
IAEA: Iran Increasing Uranium Enrichment Up to Eightfold at Fordow, Near Weapons-Grade Levels
Dec 6, 2024, 03:34 PM
Iran is poised to dramatically increase its production of highly enriched uranium, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said on Friday that Iran is significantly expanding its capacity to enrich uranium to 60% purity, a level close to the 90% required for weapons-grade material. This increase is mainly at Iran's Fordow site, which is built into a mountain. According to Grossi, Iran was previously enriching uranium to 60% at a rate of around 5-7 kilograms per month, but this rate is set to rise to "seven, eight times more, maybe, or even more". On December 5, the IAEA verified that Iran had started feeding uranium enriched up to 20%, rather than the previous 5%, into two interconnected IR-6 centrifuge cascades at Fordow to produce uranium enriched up to 60%. This development comes after Iran abandoned its short-lived pledge to stop enriching uranium close to weapons-grade levels. A recent US intelligence report indicated that Iran is capable of producing more than 12 nuclear bombs if it enriches its uranium stockpiles. The German Foreign Ministry described Iran's actions as a "grave escalatory step" that significantly worsens conditions for diplomacy.
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Other significant finding • 25%
No change in enrichment • 25%
Decrease in enrichment • 25%
Increase in enrichment • 25%
Decreased enrichment levels • 25%
New violations discovered • 25%
Increased enrichment levels • 25%
Stable enrichment levels • 25%
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Iran partially compliant • 25%
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Iran in compliance • 25%
Iran non-compliant • 25%
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Other issues • 25%
Compliance with monitoring • 25%
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Nuclear material storage • 25%
Above 60% • 25%
Not publicly disclosed • 25%
Below 20% • 25%
Between 20% and 60% • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military confrontation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Nuclear program dismantled • 25%
Reduced nuclear activities • 25%
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Take no action • 25%
Refer Iran to UNSC • 25%
Increase monitoring activities • 25%
Issue a formal warning • 25%
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Inspection Challenges • 25%