Market
What will ByteDance do in response to the U.S. TikTok ban by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Sells TikTok to a non-China-based company • 25%
Negotiates a delay or solution with U.S. government • 25%
Continues operations without compliance • 25%
Permanently shuts down TikTok in the U.S. • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance or credible news outlets
Story
Supreme Court Upholds TikTok Ban Citing National Security, Unless ByteDance Sells
Jan 17, 2025, 03:40 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday unanimously upheld a federal law that will ban TikTok starting Sunday unless the app is sold by its China-based parent company, ByteDance. The court ruled that national security concerns related to TikTok's ties to China outweigh potential limitations on free speech for the app's 170 million U.S. users. The decision comes as President-elect Donald Trump has expressed intentions to negotiate a solution, while the Biden administration has indicated it will not enforce the ban on its last day in office. The law, passed with bipartisan support, aims to address concerns over data collection practices and the potential for Chinese government influence on the platform. Without a sale, new users will be unable to download TikTok, and existing users will not receive updates, eventually rendering the app unusable.
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Complete withdrawal from U.S. market • 25%
Other • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
Divestment from TikTok • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
Wins legal challenge and resumes operations • 25%
Remains banned throughout 2025 • 25%
Appeal the ban • 25%
Other • 25%
Sell TikTok US operations • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Legal appeal and no divestment • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Complete divestment from TikTok • 25%
Partial divestment or restructuring • 25%
No major action • 25%
Negotiate settlement • 25%
File new lawsuit • 25%
Comply with divestment • 25%
Divestment of TikTok • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
Partnership with US company • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other response • 25%
Negotiate with U.S. government • 25%
Comply with divestment • 25%
Seek further legal action • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok • 25%
TikTok operations suspended • 25%
ByteDance retains TikTok • 25%
Other action • 25%
TikTok Banned • 25%
Divestment • 25%
Legal Battle Continues • 25%
Political Resolution • 25%
Comply without divestiture • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Seek further legal action • 25%
Divest ownership • 25%
Does Not Divest • 25%
Divests TikTok • 25%
Finds Alternative Solution • 25%
Awaiting Supreme Court Decision • 25%
