Market
What will be the voter turnout in the February 23, 2025 German federal election?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Below 60% • 25%
60% to 70% • 25%
70% to 80% • 25%
Above 80% • 25%
Official voter turnout statistics released by the German Federal Returning Officer.
Story
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz Likely to Lose Confidence Vote Today, Early Elections Set for February
Dec 16, 2024, 11:10 AM
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is facing a confidence vote in the Bundestag today at 1 PM, following the collapse of his coalition government. The confidence vote is expected to result in Scholz losing parliamentary support, paving the way for early elections on February 23. Scholz is calling the vote to make way for new elections after his coalition fell apart. The Greens have indicated they will abstain, and there are concerns that the far-right AfD could vote in a way that complicates the process. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by Scholz, has been losing popularity ahead of the anticipated elections.
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60% to 70% • 25%
More than 80% • 25%
Less than 60% • 25%
70% to 80% • 25%
Coalition government forms • 25%
Opposition wins majority • 25%
Current government retains power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
CDU wins majority • 25%
Coalition government • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
AfD • 25%
Other • 25%
SPD • 25%
CDU/CSU • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) wins majority • 25%
Social Democratic Party (SPD) wins majority • 25%
A coalition government forms • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
Other coalition forms majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
Greens win majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
Other coalition • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
Other party wins majority • 25%
CDU wins majority • 25%
No clear majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) • 25%
Alternative for Germany (AfD) • 25%
Alliance 90/The Greens • 25%
Social Democratic Party (SPD) • 25%
Candidate from CDU/CSU • 25%
Other • 25%
Candidate from SPD • 25%
Alice Weidel (AfD) • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
Other coalition forms government • 25%