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What will be the outcome of the German federal elections in 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
Greens win majority • 25%
Other coalition • 25%
Official election results from the Federal Returning Officer of Germany
Story
Germany's Economy Shrinks 0.2% in 2024, Second Annual Decline Since 1950; Q4 GDP Down 0.1%
Jan 15, 2025, 09:14 AM
Germany's economy contracted by 0.2% in 2024, matching estimates and marking the second consecutive year of decline, according to preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office. This follows a 0.3% decrease in 2023, making it the first time since 1950 that Germany has experienced two successive years of economic contraction. The economy also shrank by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024. The Budget Maastricht deficit widened to -2.6% of GDP, surpassing estimates and the previous year's -2.0%. The downturn is attributed to both cyclical and structural challenges, including overregulation, high energy costs, taxes, shrinking population, competition from China, unproductive mass migration, global tensions, decarbonization efforts, and poor digitization. The outlook for exports remains modest, and a noticeable recovery in consumer climate is not in sight. Experts express concern that the economy is unlikely to grow much in 2025, prolonging the stagnation in Europe's largest economy ahead of upcoming elections where the economy is a central focus.
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SPD wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
Other coalition forms majority • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
Current government retains power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Coalition government forms • 25%
Opposition wins majority • 25%
Coalition government • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
CDU wins majority • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) wins majority • 25%
Social Democratic Party (SPD) wins majority • 25%
A coalition government forms • 25%
Traditional party wins majority • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Nationalist party wins majority • 25%
No clear majority • 25%
Other party wins majority • 25%
CDU wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
Other coalition forms government • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
Other party or coalition • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
Greens win majority • 25%
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) • 25%
Candidate from CDU/CSU • 25%
Alice Weidel (AfD) • 25%
Alternative for Germany (AfD) • 25%
Alliance 90/The Greens • 25%
Other • 25%
Candidate from SPD • 25%
Social Democratic Party (SPD) • 25%
SPD • 25%
CDU/CSU • 25%
AfD • 25%
Other • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
Other coalition wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
Remains in opposition • 25%
AfD remains in opposition • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Forms coalition government • 25%
Wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
AfD joins coalition government • 25%
Other • 25%