Market
What will be the outcome of the February 2025 German federal elections?
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Olaf Scholz•Bundestag•Free Democratic Party•FDP•Scholz•Christian Lindner•Friedrich Merz•Christian Democratic Union•CDU•Germany
Resolution / Starting Odds
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) wins majority • 25%
Social Democratic Party (SPD) wins majority • 25%
A coalition government forms • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official election results from the German Federal Election Commission or credible news sources
Story
Scholz Calls Confidence Vote After FDP Exit; Elections Set for February 23, 2025
Dec 16, 2024, 01:30 PM
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called a confidence vote in the Bundestag today, following the collapse of his coalition government after the Free Democratic Party (FDP) left the alliance. He is expected to lose the vote, which would lead to the dissolution of parliament and trigger snap federal elections scheduled for February 23, 2025. In his speech before the vote, Scholz criticized former Finance Minister Christian Lindner, accusing him of lacking "moral maturity." He called for massive new investments in infrastructure and defense, promising to lower taxes on groceries and raise the minimum wage to boost economic growth. Opposition leader Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) criticized Scholz for inaction and disrespect, as Germany faces economic challenges including high inflation and a faltering economy.
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Opposition wins majority • 25%
Coalition government forms • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Current government retains power • 25%
Coalition government • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
CDU wins majority • 25%
Greens win majority • 25%
Other coalition • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
Other coalition forms majority • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
Nationalist party wins majority • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Traditional party wins majority • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Other coalition wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
No clear majority • 25%
Other party wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
CDU wins majority • 25%
Other coalition wins majority • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
Coalition government formed excluding AfD • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other coalition forms government • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
Other coalition forms majority • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
Greens win majority • 25%
Other party or coalition • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%