Market
What will be the trend of public protests in South Korea demanding President Yoon's removal by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Protests increase • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests remain stable • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Reports from major news outlets and official protest records
Story
South Korean Police Raid President Yoon's Office on December 3 Martial Law Investigation as Ex-Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun Attempts Suicide
Dec 11, 2024, 08:13 AM
South Korean police have conducted a raid on President Yoon Suk Yeol's office as part of an ongoing investigation into his recent declaration of martial law, which has sparked significant political turmoil in the country. The raid comes in the wake of the arrest of former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, who attempted suicide while in custody. Kim is accused of conspiring with President Yoon to impose martial law, which was briefly enacted last week before being lifted. The police raid also targeted the Seoul Metropolitan Police and National Assembly Police Guards. Reports indicate that security personnel blocked the investigative team from accessing the main building of the presidential office during the raid. The political crisis has intensified as calls for President Yoon's impeachment grow, and protests have erupted outside the National Assembly demanding his removal from office.
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Protests Intensify • 33%
Protests Subside • 33%
Protests Remain Unchanged • 34%
Martial law lifted, Yoon remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
Protests remain evenly matched • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Pro-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Anti-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Protests escalate into larger national movement • 25%
Protests subside with no major change • 25%
Protests lead to President Yoon's resignation • 25%
Protests lead to new government policies • 25%
Protests Intensify • 25%
Protests End • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Protests Subside • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
President remains • 25%
President resigns • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Protests intensify • 25%
Government crackdown • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Protesters disband without resolution • 25%
Peaceful resolution • 25%
Violence or unrest • 25%
Government concession • 25%
Protests continue without resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Impeachment invalidated • 25%
Yoon arrested • 25%
Mass Protests Occur • 25%
Minor Protests Occur • 25%
No Significant Protests • 25%
Other Outcomes • 25%