Market
Outcome of next major protest against President Yoon by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Peaceful resolution • 25%
Violence or unrest • 25%
Government concession • 25%
Protesters disband without resolution • 25%
News reports and official statements
Story
South Korea's President Yoon Survives Impeachment Vote Amid Ruling Party Boycott
Dec 7, 2024, 12:40 PM
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has survived an impeachment vote in the National Assembly on Saturday, December 7, after members of his ruling party boycotted the vote. The motion to impeach President Yoon, who had recently imposed and then lifted martial law, failed to reach the required two-thirds majority of 200 votes in the 300-seat chamber, with only 195 votes cast. The boycott by the ruling party lawmakers ensured that the vote did not pass, allowing Yoon to remain in office. This political drama unfolded amidst public protests, with an estimated 150,000 people in Seoul demanding the President's resignation. President Yoon had issued a public apology for his martial law misstep.
View original story
Similar markets
Government crackdown • 25%
Protests intensify • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Protests escalate into larger national movement • 25%
Protests lead to new government policies • 25%
Protests subside with no major change • 25%
Protests lead to President Yoon's resignation • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
Martial law lifted, Yoon remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Travel ban imposed • 25%
Impeachment proceedings • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Protests Remain Unchanged • 34%
Protests Intensify • 33%
Protests Subside • 33%
Other outcome • 25%
Compromise reached • 25%
President resigns • 25%
President remains • 25%
Protests remain evenly matched • 25%
Pro-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Anti-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Resignation • 25%
Impeachment proceedings • 25%
No action • 25%
Continued investigation • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Protests Intensify • 25%
Protests End • 25%
Protests Subside • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Arrested and detained • 25%
Other • 25%
Escapes or flees the country • 25%
Remains free and not detained • 25%
Protests lead to Yoon's arrest • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Protests lead to no change • 25%
Protests lead to warrant extension • 25%