Market
What will be the state of U.S.-China relations regarding cyberattacks by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severe diplomatic conflict • 25%
Official government statements and major news outlets
Story
U.S. Offers $10 Million Reward for Chinese Hacker Guan Tianfeng Linked to April 2020 Cyberattacks on 81,000 Sophos Firewalls
Dec 11, 2024, 10:13 AM
The United States has announced a $10 million reward for information leading to the arrest of Guan Tianfeng, a Chinese national implicated in a significant cyberattack that compromised critical domestic infrastructure. The announcement comes alongside sanctions against a Chinese cybersecurity firm and one of its employees, following cyberattacks that occurred in April 2020. A federal court has unsealed an indictment charging Guan with conspiracy to exploit vulnerabilities in 81,000 Sophos firewalls, which allowed unauthorized access to sensitive data and targeted U.S. infrastructure. The U.S. government has emphasized the seriousness of these cyber threats, particularly in light of the potential risks posed by such attacks on essential services.
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Resolution through diplomatic talks • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of sanctions • 25%
Military posturing • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Bilateral cybersecurity agreement • 25%
Continued accusations without resolution • 25%
Increased tensions and potential sanctions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Resolution Reached • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Cybersecurity collaboration • 25%
New bilateral agreements • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Escalation of cyber conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased cyber sanctions • 25%
New cybersecurity agreement • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant action • 25%
Diplomatic dialogue initiated • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Other measures • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Other • 25%
Discussions ended • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ongoing discussions • 25%
Talks failed • 25%
Talks ongoing • 25%
Resolution reached • 25%
No official talks • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%